Live coverage of the US election

1 month ago 5

Sam Clench

In the latest pronouncement from Donald Trump's Twitter feed, the President says he has claimed, "for electoral vote purposes", Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

All of those states remain in the balance. He might end up winning all of them, losing all of them, or some mix of the two. We'll find out later.

He is also claiming Michigan – a state he has already lost – because of a "widely reported" number of "secretly dumped ballots".

There is no evidence to support that claim. If Mr Trump has evidence, he should probably produce it.

No, by the way, presidential candidates do not just get to "claim" states on a whim, regardless of the vote totals.

…..there was a large number of secretly dumped ballots as has been widely reported!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 4, 2020

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Sam Clench

CNN and CBS have projected that Joe Biden will win Michigan.

Mr Biden is now at 253 electoral votes. If he maintains his narrow leads in Arizona and Nevada, that will bring him to 270, making him the next president.

I'll remind you that some media outlets, including Fox News and The Associated Press, already called Arizona for Mr Biden last night. The Trump campaign insists that call was wrong.

Nevertheless, going by those numbers, Mr Biden only needs one more state to win the election.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is running out of options. He now absolutely needs to win Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, plus overtake Mr Biden in Arizona or Nevada.

It's a narrow path. But it could still happen. Let's see how the votes fall.

Sam Clench

Joe Biden just addressed the nation from Wilmington, Delaware. His speech included some mixed messaging – at a few points he seemed to be claiming victory, and then at others he explicitly stopped short.

"Kamala and I are here to make a brief statement. And I'm sure we'll have more to say later, either tonight or tomorrow," he said.

"My fellow Americans, yesterday once again proved that democracy is the heartbeat of this nation, just as it has been for two centuries.

"Even in the face of pandemic, more Americans voted in this election than ever before in American history. Over 150 million. I think that's extraordinary.

"Here, the people rule. Power can't be taken or asserted. It flows from the people. It is their will that determines who will be the president, and their will alone.

"Now, after a long night of counting, it's clear that we're winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.

"I'm not here to declare we've won, but I am here to report that when the count is finished, we believe we'll be the winners."

To state the obvious, this is political spin from Mr Biden. While he is currently leading in enough states to make him president, the margins in a couple of them – Nevada and Arizona – are tight enough that they remain toss-ups.

"Michigan will complete its vote soon, maybe as early as today. And I feel very good about Pennsylvania," he continued.

"We've flipped Arizona and the second district of Nebraska. Of special significance to me is that we've won with a majority of the American people, and every indication is that majority will grow."

Again, it is not correct for Mr Biden to say "we've won" here. He may well be the winner when the votes are all counted, but we don't know that for sure yet.

"I'm very proud of our campaign. Only three presidential campaigns in the past have defeated an incumbent president. When it's finished, God willing, we'll be the fourth. This is a major achievement," he said.

"We've had hard campaigns before, we've faced hard times before. So once this election is finalised and behind us, it will be time for us to do what we've always done as Americans. To put the harsh rhetoric of the campaign behind us.

"To listen to each other, and hear one another again. To unite, to heal, to come together as a nation. I know this won't be easy, I'm not naive.

"I know this, to make progress, we have to stop treating our opponents as enemies. We are not enemies. What brings us together as Americans is so much stronger than anything that tears us apart.

"The presidency itself is not a partisan institution. It's the one office in this nation that represents everyone. And it demands a duty of care for all Americans. And that is precisely what I will do.

"Now, every vote must be counted. No one's going to take our democracy away from us, not now, not ever. America has come too far, fought too many battles, endured too much to ever let that happen

"We, the people, will not be silenced. We will not be bullied, we will not surrender.

"I'm confident we'll emerge victorious, but this will not be my victory alone or our victory alone. It will be a victory for the American people, for our democracy, for America."

Joe Biden: “Once this election is finalized and behind us, it’ll be time for us to do what we’ve always done as Americans: to put the harsh rhetoric of the campaign behind us…to unite, to heal, to come together as a nation.” https://t.co/GwwRl4EUb3 #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/txlvkEt8Kr

— ABC News (@ABC) November 4, 2020

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Sam Clench

Donald Trump's campaign, and his son Eric, are claiming victory for the President in Pennsylvania.

"We are declaring a victory in Pennsylvania," campaign manager Bill Stepien said during a call with reporters a short time ago.

None of the news networks have called the state, for either candidate. Nineteen per cent of the vote still needs to be counted, which appears to equate to about a million mail-in ballots. Those ballots are expected to heavily favour Joe Biden.

Let me stress, there is every possibility that Mr Trump ends up winning the state. He currently leads by about 450,000 votes, a margin of 53-46, and that is a big gap for Mr Biden to make up.

Whether he's likely to or not, however, it is possible, and all the networks' experts still consider Pennsylvania to be undecided.

File this news in the same category as Mr Trump's premature declaration of victory last night, and a Biden campaign lawyer's premature declaration of victory earlier this morning.

Saying it doesn't make it so, for either candidate.

Officially, nobody has won Pennsylvania yet, and certainly no one has reached 270 electoral votes.

Sam Clench

As we wait for that media conference with the President's son Eric, let me give you a quick rundown of who is leading where.

Joe Biden is currently ahead, albeit by small margins, in Michigan, Nevada and Arizona.

Donald Trump leads in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

As things stand, all Mr Biden needs to do is hold on to those leads. If he manages it, he'll be the next president.

Mr Trump's path is a bit more difficult, but his campaign thinks he has a shot at catching up in both Nevada and Arizona.

We'll see. Each of these states will be close until the very end.

Sam Clench

The Trump campaign has filed a lawsuit in Michigan in an attempt to halt the state's vote count.

“President Trump’s campaign has not been provided with meaningful access to numerous counting locations to observe the opening of ballots and the counting process, as guaranteed by Michigan law," campaign manager Bill Stepien said in a statement.

"We have filed suit today in the Michigan Court of Claims to halt counting until meaningful access has been granted.

“We also demand to review those ballots which were opened and counted while we did not have meaningful access. President Trump is committed to ensuring that all legal votes are counted in Michigan and everywhere else.”

Meanwhile, some of the Trump family – Eric and his wife Lara – are reportedly en route to Philadelphia for a media conference, where one can only presume they will impugn the integrity of the vote count.

I feel confident making that assumption because they're bringing Rudy Giuliani with them, and this is the kind of stuff he's saying right now.

En route to Philadelphia with legal team.

Massive cheating.@realDonaldTrump up by 550,000 with 75% counted.

Will not let Philly Democrat hacks steal it!

— Rudy W. Giuliani (@RudyGiuliani) November 4, 2020

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Sam Clench

This isn't remotely surprising, given the Trump campaign has already requested a recount, but CNN has just officially called Wisconsin for Joe Biden.

That's a pick-up for the Democrats. Donald Trump won Wisconsin in 2016, by practically the same thin margin Mr Biden appears to have claimed it by this time.

Sam Clench

The Associated Press has called Maine's second congressional district for Donald Trump. It gives the President one extra electoral vote to play with.

Joe Biden won the single vote on offer in Nebraska's second district last night.

Sam Clench

Maine Senator Susan Collins, a moderate Republican, says her opponent Sara Gideon has conceded to her in a "very gracious" call.

The news networks haven't actually called this race yet, but if one of the candidates is conceding, I think we can safely say it's over.

This is a big deal for the balance of power in the Senate. The Democrats thought they were going to claim Ms Collins' seat.

So as things stand, we appear to be on track for divided government, with Joe Biden the favourite to be president, the Republicans likely to retain control of the Senate, and the Democrats maintaining their majority in the House of Representatives.

Sam Clench

Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien says the President will request a recount in Wisconsin.

"Despite ridiculous public polling used as a voter suppression tactic, Wisconsin has been a razor-thin race, as we always knew it would be," Mr Stepien said.

"There have been reports of irregularities in several Wisconsin counties which raise serious doubts about the validity of the results. The President is well within the threshold to request a recount and we will immediately do so."

Joe Biden is ahead by about 21,000 votes in Wisconsin with only a couple of hundred left to count.

Mr Trump won the state by a strikingly similar margin of 23,000 votes four years ago. That result also sparked a recount, which was originally requested by Greens candidate Jill Stein but later backed by the Clinton campaign.

So yes, the Trump campaign is well within its rights to demand a recount here. It's unlikely to change the result though. As Wisconsin's former Republican governor Scott Walker pointed out earlier, recounts in the state typically only shift a few hundred votes at most.

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