Live coverage of the US election campaign

Just to be clear regarding that last post – if Donald Trump does claim victory on election night before the results themselves actually support such a claim, we will tell you.

So will the rest of the news media. Neither candidate gets to unilaterally decide that a bunch of as-yet-uncounted votes don't matter.

Of course, the President might win in a landslide, in which case it's a moot point.

Axios reports Donald Trump is planning to "declare premature victory" on election night if looks as though he is ahead, even if the news networks have not declared a result.

"That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states," it says.

"Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won.

"For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia. Like Pennsylvania."

The context here is that mail-in ballots, which will favour Joe Biden by a margin of about two-to-one, will take longer to count.

In some swing states whose rules don't allow election officials to start counting them ahead of time, it could take days to process all the legitimate mail votes.

And because the election day vote, which is counted faster, will favour Mr Trump by a similarly overwhelming margin, the upshot is that some states – particularly Pennsylvania – might show a large Trump lead on election night, only for the mail vote to come in later and give the state to Mr Biden.

"Trump's team is preparing to falsely claim that mail-in ballots counted after November 3 – a legitimate count expected to favor Democrats – are evidence of election fraud," says Axios.

Hoooo boy.

Donald Trump is doing that thing again where a TV host asks some questions he doesn't like so he has a go at their ratings.

Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace was, of course, the moderator at the first presidential debate between Mr Trump and Joe Biden. He copped a lot of criticism from both sides of politics – the Democrats said he did too little to stop the President's constant interruptions, while the Republicans said he was biased in Mr Biden's favour.

I didn't see Fox News Sunday, as I was watching Trump campaign adviser Jason Miller over on ABC News, but thanks to Mediaite I think we can surmise what rankled Mr Trump here.

Wallace interviewed Corey Lewandowski, who was Mr Trump's campaign manager in 2016 before he got caught on tape manhandling a female reporter.

“Hasn’t the President failed at his biggest job this year, containing the virus?” Wallace asked.

Mr Lewandowski disagreed, repeating Mr Trump's line that "99.99 per cent" of patients under the age of 50 are fine if they catch the virus.

"The fact is, more than 230,000 Americans so far have died from this disease. On Wednesday, a thousand people died. On Thursday, a thousand people died," Wallace told him.

I mean, he's not wrong. Those are the figures, whether Mr Trump appreciates them being brought up or not.

The state Supreme Court in Texas has denied a Republican Party petition to throw out 127,000 ballots in Harris County, an overwhelmingly Democratic area.

The Republicans' argument here is that only state legislatures have the authority to set election rules. The ballots in question were cast via curbside, drive-through voting, which was set up by the Harris County Clerk (i.e. not the state legislature).

Therefore, the Republicans say, all of those votes should be chucked out.

Texas's state Supreme Court had already refused to strike down drive-through voting.

This ruling does not end the debate. The Republicans are also mounting a challenge in federal court, and they've drawn a friendly judge, so don't rule anything out. That is being heard tomorrow.

One of the President's coronavirus advisers, Dr Scott Atlas, has apologised for giving an interview to Russia Today, which is considered a Russian propaganda outlet.

The main thrust of the interview was Dr Atlas's opposition to coronavirus lockdowns, of the sort British Prime Minister Boris Johnson just announced.

"The lockdowns will go down as an epic failure of public policy," Dr Atlas said.

"The argument is undeniable. The lockdowns are killing people."

Anyway this is the sort of sincere, unconditional apology we don't see often enough from our public figures, so full credit to the guy.

Donald Trump's first rally of the day was in Washington, Michigan, and the President appeared to have eaten his Weet-Bix. Or whatever the American equivalent is. A bunch of very sugary pop tarts, maybe.

Anyway, Mr Trump was throwing out allegations of criminal conduct left and right, all of them – surprise! – involving his political opponents.

"If that side gets in, those maniacs, AOC plus three. Ilhan Omar, Ilhan Omar. They're going to put Ilhan Omar in charge of immigration. She will be in charge of immigration," he told his supporters.

"If these people – they're maniacs who don't like our country. You know, you think Ilhan Omar – that's one of the reasons we're going to win Minnesota, because of Ilhan Omar. How did she get elected?"

Ms Omar is a left-wing congresswoman representing Minnesota's (heavily Democratic) fifth congressional district. She got elected by winning 78 per cent of the vote against her Republican opponent.

Mr Biden has given no hint that he intends to give Ms Omar any job in his administration. When it comes to the immigration portfolio, I'd suggest he will go for someone with more experience than a first-term congresswoman.

"Didn't she harvest? I heard she ballot harvested, didn't she?" Mr Trump continued (the answer is no).

"So where is our Justice Department? She ballot – everybody is telling me stories. I have a great writer in Minnesota, and he writes stories about her, volumes. And nothing ever happens to her.

"Ilhan Omar, she's harvesting ballots. It's illegal, right? They have a story. So where the hell – why aren't they looking at her? If I did that they'd be looking at me."

Again, to be clear, there is no investigation into Ms Omar because there isn't actually any credible evidence that she harvested ballots.

"It's a disgrace. Honestly, it's a disgrace. And AOC, AOC right? Didn't she steal two million dollars out of her campaign? Didn't AOC steal two million dollars out of her campaign?" Mr Trump asked, turning his attention back to New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

"So why aren't they looking at her? Why aren't they looking at her, Justice Department?

"She stole two million dollars out of her campaign. AOC plus three, right?"

I have no idea where the President's specific $2 million figure came from. A conservative group, the National Legal and Policy Centre, did accuse Ms Ocasio-Cortez of campaign finance violations in 2018, and made a complaint to the Federal Election Commission.

Campaign finance experts concluded there was, again, actually no evidence of any wrongdoing.

If you're wondering what the heck Mr Trump is talking about when he says "AOC plus three", he's referring to the so-called "squad" of four left-wing congresswomen – Ms Ocasio-Cortez, Ms Omar, Ayanna Pressley and Rashida Tlaib.

Neither Ms Ocasio-Cortez nor Ms Omar was deemed worthy of a "lock her up" chant by the crowd. Joe Biden, on the other hand? Yeah, he got one.

"Joe Biden is a corrupt politician who bought, and is paid for," Mr Trump said, alluding to his claims (again without evidence) that Mr Biden illegally profited off his son Hunter's overseas business interests.

"Look, he's bought and paid for by China. How about his son? His son walks in, he's supposed to be fair," said the President.

He had to pause there, as the crowd erupted into a prolonged and very, very enthusiastic "lock him up" chant.

The next target was Michigan's Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who has repeatedly clashed with Mr Trump over their differing responses to the pandemic.

"If your governor opened up your state, which she has to do – well Biden, you know Biden's all about lockdowns. He loves that. He loves a lockdown," Mr Trump said.

This time the crowd chanted "lock her up".

And it really wouldn't be a Trump rally without at least one mention of his 2016 opponent, Hillary Clinton.

"Crazy Hillary, crooked Hillary, came – here we go. Watch. Here we go," he said as the crowd started up again.

"They always blame me, whenever that chant starts. All I do is I mention her name!

"I didn't do anything. Well they say it with your governor. Every time I mention her name, they say the same thing. And they say, 'He's inciting!' I'm inciting."

On a less serious note, perhaps, I did enjoy Mr Trump's anecdote about a conversation with former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, which may or may not have actually happened.

This is one of those stories he regularly tells while in Michigan, because it involves the state's car industry.

"I met with prime minister Abe of Japan. Great guy, since retired. He had a problem with health, but fantastic man," Mr Trump said.

"I said, 'Shinzo, you have to send plants to Michigan. You have to send plants to the United States.' And he said, 'No no, I cannot do that, that is a private decision.' I said, 'Shinzo, you're a powerful man, I'm sure you can do it.' 'No no no.'

"I said, 'You have to do it Shinzo, because you're making too many cars, sending them here. We want them made in the United States. You have to do it.' He says, 'Well I can't.'

"The next day, there were five companies moving to Michigan."

The conversation Mr Trump described may well have been real. The thing about five car companies moving to Michigan? Entirely fictitious. Made up. Baloney. Did not happen.

Just to reinforce that last post, this is the Republican Lieutenant Governor of Utah, Spencer Cox, labelling Jason Miller's rhetoric "garbage".

While we're talking about the confusion everyone is expecting on election night, you should also be aware of a potential "blue mirage" in the early hours.

Unlike the Rust Belt states, Florida and North Carolina do allow election officials to count mail-in ballots ahead of time. So, when the polls close in those two swing states, you can expect the first batch of results to overwhelmingly favour Joe Biden.

Don't be fooled. As the count proceeds, the election day vote will trickle in, and it's going to favour Donald Trump by a similarly wide margin.

Who ends up winning? No idea. Just don't assume a big early lead for Mr Biden is enough to be decisive.

Jason Miller, a senior adviser on the Trump campaign, was the marquee guest on ABC News' Sunday show This Week.

Most of the interview involved Mr Miller explaining why the campaign is feeling good about Donald Trump's chances heading into election day.

I want to specifically highlight one thing he said, though.

"If you speak with many smart Democrats, they believe that President Trump will be ahead on election night, probably getting 280 electors, somewhere in that range. And they're just going to try to steal it back after the election," said Mr Miller.

"We believe we'll be over 290 electoral votes on election night. So no matter what they try to do, what kind of hijinks or lawsuits or whatever kind of nonsense they try to pull off, we're still going to have enough electoral votes to get President Trump re-elected."

The emphasis is mine.

Mr Miller's answer there echoes the President's rhetoric in recent days. Mr Trump has been suggesting there is something improper about election officials continuing to count the votes after election night.

Let's be really goddamn clear about this. The vote count always proceeds after election night, and it is going to be no different this year. There's nothing unusual about it. Under the law, each state has until December 8 to finish its count and certify the results.

The one unique factor this time is the massive surge in mail voting due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Rules around early voting vary from state to state – some allow election officials to start counting mail-in ballots ahead of time, while others make them wait until the polls close.

The latter group includes several crucial swing states, most notably those in the Rust Belt – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And that could lead to a delay in some of the final results being known.

Keep in mind that the early vote is expected to overwhelmingly favour Joe Biden, and the in-person vote on election day is expected to favour Mr Trump by the same sort of margin.

We know this from the polling, which has been breaking down the candidates' levels of support from each group. Mr Biden gets about two-thirds support from early voters, and Mr Trump gets about two-thirds support from election day voters.

So, we come to the scenario that Mr Miller and Mr Trump are quite obviously anticipating.

Under this scenario, those Rust Belt states do not finish counting their votes on election night. And the results we do get from them early on are disproportionately from ballots cast on election day, meaning they show Mr Trump in the lead.

Over the next couple of days, officials finish counting the votes, gradually working their way through the deluge of mail-in ballots. When that process is complete, Mr Biden is declared the winner.

Mr Miller is implying that counting the remaining votes after election night – i.e. election officials literally doing their job – will somehow constitute the Democrats "stealing back" the election.

Be wary of this as the results roll in. When Mr Miller says the Trump campaign expects to be "over 290 electoral votes" on the night, what he's actually describing is a scenario in which neither candidate reaches the 270-vote threshold, and several states remain undecided with Mr Trump provisionally ahead.

On the subject of the coronavirus, Dr Anthony Fauci has given a conspicuously blunt interview to The Washington Post.

“We’re in for a whole lot of hurt,” Dr Fauci said of the approaching American winter.

“It’s not a good situation. All the stars are aligned in the wrong place as you go into the fall and winter season, with people congregating at home indoors. You could not possibly be positioned more poorly.”

He also explicitly criticised one his fellow coronavirus task force members, Dr Scott Atlas.

President Trump is full of praise for Dr Atlas, who has questioned the effectiveness of face masks and advocated a "herd immunity" strategy. But his presence on the task force is a great source of tension behind the scenes.

Dr Deborah Birx has reportedly called for him to be removed, as she thinks he's giving the President bad advice.

“I have real problems with that guy,” Dr Fauci said.

“He’s a smart guy who’s talking about things that I believe he doesn’t have any real insight or knowledge or experience in. He keeps talking about things that when you dissect it out and parse it out, it doesn’t make any sense.”

White House spokesman Judd Deere issued a furious statement in response to Dr Fauci's remarks.

“It’s unacceptable and breaking with all norms," Mr Deere said.

"As a member of the task force, Dr. Fauci has a duty to express concerns or push for a change in strategy, but he’s not done that, instead choosing to criticize the President in the media and make his political leanings known by praising the President’s opponent.

"Exactly what the American people have come to expect from the swamp.”

Dr Atlas, for his part, merely tweeted this.

While we're talking about the polls, here are two more new ones to consider.

The latest WSJ/NBC News survey has Joe Biden ahead 52-42. The equivalent poll four years ago showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 5 per cent.

There's also a fresh Fox News poll. This one has Mr Biden up 52-44, but I'm more interested in diving in to the crosstabs.

This, in particular, struck me as significant.

It lines up with the sort of results we have been seeing on this question throughout the pandemic.

A large majority of Americans believe limiting the spread of the coronavirus should be a higher priority than restarting the economy.

And that is why I'm finding the President's rhetoric so baffling in these closing days. He is making an overwhelmingly unpopular position a central theme of his campaign, and gifting the popular position to his opponent.

Mr Trump is telling voters the US is "rounding the turn" and the virus is "going away", despite its record-breaking infection numbers (including more than 100,000 cases a couple of days ago).

He's saying governors should reopen their economies, even in the worst-hit states.

One of his core attacks on Mr Biden is a warning that the Democrat will impose coronavirus lockdowns again.

The President is holding massive rallies with no social distancing and few face masks, and he's mocking his opponent for holding small events in accordance with local health guidelines.

He constantly complains about the news media's coverage of the pandemic, saying it's "all they talk about" and the coverage will stop the day after the election.

He tells his supporters that if they catch the virus, they'll get better, and "99.9 per cent" of people are fine anyway.

Mr Trump has been claiming that American healthcare workers are overstating the death toll to get more money.

A few weeks ago he warned Mr Biden "will listen to the scientists" if elected, and he meant it as an insult.

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows recently said America was "not going to control the pandemic", and the administration was focused on getting a vaccine out there instead.

I mean, I could keep going here. At every turn, the President is spreading the message that the virus isn't as bad as his critics or the media say, and the economy should be everyone's top priority.

Meanwhile, Mr Biden has been allowed to tie himself to the relatively uncontroversial idea that containing the virus is important, and things like social distancing and masks matter.

Mr Trump's strategy here is … interesting. Which is a polite way of saying it doesn't seem to make much sense.