Poland, Hungary: How two close allies came to be estranged

"For me, the infinitesimal erstwhile the paths of Viktor Orban and Donald Tusk diverged was November 8, 2018," recalls Dr. Dominik Hejj, a Polish-Hungarian governmental scientist.

On this date, members of the center-right EPP (European People's Party), which boasts the largest radical successful the European Parliament, came from each implicit the continent to conscionable successful the Finnish capital, Helsinki. The parties of some Orban and Tusk were astatine the clip members of the EPP.

A gathering of allied European governmental parties doesn't look a apt mounting for the commencement of the biggest governmental divided successful eastbound Europe of the past 20 years, but truthful it was.

Hejj recalls the wide connection that Donald Tusk, past president of the EPP, sent retired that time successful Helsinki: A existent Christian politician does not reason the regularisation of law, an autarkic judiciary, the free press and NGOs and does not tolerate xenophobia and nationalism.

A demonstrator holds up a motion protesting against Hungary's adjacent ties with Russia and for greater rights for the LGBTQ+ assemblage successful HungaryImage: Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images

"This was evidently addressed to Orban, who conscionable a abbreviated clip antecedently had proclaimed Hungary a Christian — not a wide — democracy," Hejj told DW.

The lawsuit successful Helsinki marked a definite alteration successful the code of relations betwixt Donald Tusk and Viktor Orban, who has been premier curate of Hungary since 2010.

Up until then, relations betwixt the 2 governments had been good, with Tusk warmly congratulating Hungary connected a occupation good done erstwhile Poland succeeded Hungary successful the rotating presidency of the EU connected July 1, 2011.

A chill successful relations

Fast guardant 14 years to the commencement of Poland's 2nd presidency of the EU successful 2025: Tusk is erstwhile again premier curate of Poland, and Orban is inactive successful complaint successful Hungary. But this time, the ambiance is precise different.

Late past December, Hungary granted asylum to the erstwhile Polish Deputy Justice Minister Marcin Romanowski of the populist, blimpish Law and Justice (PiS) party, who is wanted successful Poland for alleged misuse of nationalist funds.

Orban justified the determination by saying that Hungary "would connection refuge to anyone facing governmental persecution successful his country."

Referring to Hungary's granting of asylum to Marcin Romanowski, Hungarian MEP Tamas Deutsch has said that 'yet again, Polish patriots are forced to flee' and that 'Hungary volition judge each those persecuted'Image: Alain Rolland/European Union 2024

Warsaw was furious. Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called Orban's determination "an enactment hostile to the Republic of Poland and to the principles of the EU" and uninvited Hungary's ambassador to Poland to the ceremonial marking the commencement of the Polish presidency of the bloc.

Zsuzsanna Vegh of the German Marshall Fund of the United States calls this determination some an denotation of a "clear clash" betwixt Orban and Tusk and a "gesture" towards Orban's Polish ally, PiS.

Historical ties

"Pole and Hungarian brothers be" is an aged proverb that exists successful some the Polish and Hungarian languages and is profoundly rooted successful history.

It comes from the beardown enslaved that developed betwixt these 2 peoples down done the centuries and the information that their fates person agelong been intertwined.

Poland and Hungary were some almighty countries that mislaid their sovereignty to neighbors earlier regaining it aft the First World War. Both slid into semi-autocracies successful the inter-war years and ended up arsenic Soviet outer states aft the Second World War, lone to regain their state successful 1989.

From Tusk to Kaczynski

When Tusk ran for president of the EU Council successful 2014, Budapest supported him. A twelvemonth later, however, Tusk's enactment mislaid powerfulness successful Warsaw, and Viktor Orban recovered his cleanable state successful Jaroslaw Kaczynski, person of the victorious PiS.

Regardless of which authorities has been successful powerfulness successful Warsaw, Poland has been a staunch protagonist of Ukraine ever since Russia's all-out penetration of the state successful February 2022Image: Aleksandra Szmigiel/REUTERS

For Kaczynski, Orban was evidently a relation model. Hungarian companies were welcomed to Warsaw, practice betwixt the 2 governments intensified, and immoderate of Poland's judicial and media reforms looked arsenic if they had been lifted consecutive retired of Orban's playbook.

"Brothers be" present meant "populist brothers be."

Orban's pivot to the right

Zsuzsanna Vegh says that Europe's exile situation of 2015 exacerbated Orban's ideological displacement to the acold right, and that the demolition of Hungary's antiauthoritarian institutions gradually made Orban's party, Fidesz, a problematic spouse for Europe's center-right parties, including Donald Tusk's Civic Platform (PO).

After the EPP suspended Fidesz successful 2019 owed to concerns that it was undermining the regularisation of instrumentality successful Hungary, Orban started gathering ties with populist, nationalist parties crossed the EU.

This culminated successful Fidesz leaving the EPP successful 2021 and co-founding the Patriots for Europe (PfE) Group successful the European Parliament successful 2024.

Impact of the warfare successful Ukraine

Relations betwixt the 2 countries took a crisp crook for the worse with Russia's all-out penetration of Ukraine successful February 2022. Suddenly, Poland and Hungary were poles apart.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (left) likes to represent his authorities arsenic the lone 1 successful Europe susceptible of talking to Russia Image: Sputnik/Grigory Sysoyev/Pool via REUTERS

While Poland became 1 of Ukraine's biggest supporters, Hungary portrayed itself arsenic the 1 European authorities susceptible of talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Then, PiS mislaid the parliamentary predetermination successful October 2023 and Tusk returned to powerfulness successful Poland. Orban's trusted state was nary longer astatine the helm successful Warsaw.

Poland getting atrocious property successful Hungary

According to Dominik Hejj, the existent Hungarian communicative portrays Tusk's Poland arsenic a state that has abandoned its Christian individuality successful bid to get the European Commission to unfreeze EU funds for Poland that were blocked successful 2022 owed to concerns astir the erosion of the regularisation of law nether the PiS government.

High-ranking Hungarian politicians are besides claiming that it is really Tusk's authorities that is breaching the regularisation of law, hinting that Romanowski mightiness not person got a just proceedings successful Poland.

"Poland is getting unspeakable property successful Hungary close present arsenic a state that is supposedly pushing towards the Third World War. And this communicative works," says Hejj. "In 2010, Orban fundamentally reinvented the Hungarian identity. Today's communicative pictures Hungary arsenic an unwilling state of Hitler and a unfortunate of the warfare and the betrayal of the West successful 1956, erstwhile the Hungarians roseate up — unsuccessfully — against the dominance of the Soviet Union."

Activists from Greenpeace Poland staged a protestation astatine the Hungarian Embassy successful Warsaw successful May 2022 urging Viktor Orban to enactment the EU embargo connected Russian lipid Image: Pawel Wodzynski/Eastnews/IMAGO

Hejj, who has published a publication successful Polish connected the mode Orban has programmed Hungary's nationalist identity, goes connected to accidental that the Hungarian authorities has succeeded successful persuading the state that Russia is not a menace but a guarantor of inexpensive state and vigor security.

"The Hungarians are proceeding that Poland got EU funds, portion €12 cardinal earmarked for Hungary remains frozen, and that the West is pushing for warfare with Russia, portion peaceful Hungarians privation to support economical neutrality and bash concern with everyone, including Russia and China," helium says.

Where to from here?

Vegh points retired that portion Fidesz's lasting connected the European signifier has been elevated with the instauration of the PfE Group, it is acold from what Orban had hoped for, namely 1 ample far-right radical successful the European Parliament that includes PiS.

She says that Europe tin expect the Polish-Hungarian part to deepen, arsenic Orban volition not alteration his presumption connected Ukraine and Russia.

Dominik Hejj agrees: "The alteration of authorities successful Warsaw meant that Orban mislaid his leverage arsenic Poland's advocator successful its brawls with the EU. So, it is successful his champion involvement that PiS returns to power."

And that sets him connected a collision people with Donald Tusk.

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan