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15 There are now just hours left until Americans finally head to the polls to decide their next leader.
And while most indicators predict a Biden victory, if 2016 taught us anything, it’s that there’s no such thing as a shoo-in.
Here’s some major clues about what to expect from one of the most crucial votes in recent history when it comes to the polls – and the betting agencies.
WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY?
There has been a flurry of last-minute polling, with the latest Des Moines Register poll showing Mr Trump beating Mr Biden 48 per cent to 41 – a massive swing from its previous survey, which had the race tied.
Next up we have a poll of New Mexico from The Albuquerque Journal, which shows Mr Biden winning 54-42, which is in line with the conventional wisdom that New Mexico is a little too Democrat-leaning these days to be considered a proper swing state.
The latest batch of New York Times/Siena polls covers four different states. These polls show Mr Biden up 49-43 in Arizona, 52-41 in Wisconsin, 47-44 in Florida and 49-43 in Pennsylvania.
An EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan has the Democrat leading 48-41. Another, conducted by St Pete, shows him winning Florida by a razor-thin 49-48 margin. And finally, a pair of ABC News/Washington Post surveys have Mr Biden up 51-44 in Pennsylvania, but Mr Trump winning Florida 50-48.
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WHAT ARE THE ODDS?
At the moment, Democratic hopeful Joe Biden is the clear favourite across the major betting sites.
In the final days before the election, Mr Biden’s odds have shortened slightly with Betfair having him at $1.51 to win.
While his edge is narrowing, many believe betting odds offer a more accurate election prediction than polls, as people have invested their own hard-earned cash in the outcome.
According to the 2020 Presidential Election Betting Odds Tracker at OddsShark, Donald Trump was the favourite back in July 2019 – but now, “Biden is a -175 favourite to win the 2020 U.S. presidential election, with Trump coming back at +145.”
These are the odds according to some of the major betting agencies, as of November 2.
Basically, it means for every $1 you put on that candidate, you would get the below in return if they won.
• Biden: $1.57
• Trump: $2.45
• Biden: $1.50
• Trump: $2.70
• Biden: $1.51
• Trump: $2.98
• Biden: $1.50
• Trump: $2.75
• Biden: $1.50
• Trump: $2.70
PUNTER’S STUNNING $130K GAMBLE
A record number of bets have already been placed on the US election – but one cocky TAB punter has shocked betting pros by laying down $130,000 on a Biden win.
The unnamed gambler bet the staggering pile of cash at odds of $1.57 this week.
Other big recent bets include $100,000 at $1.56 on Joe Biden and $40,000 at $2.50 on Donald Trump.
While the odds are clearly in the Democratic candidate’s favour, a whopping 65 per cent of money bet on the market has gone Mr Trump’s way.
There is so much interest in the US election that TAB will hold more on it than the AFL or NRL Grand Finals.
DIFFERENT BETS YOU CAN MAKE
All eyes are on the big one – whether it will be Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the White House for the next four years.
But there are also a string of other bets on the table, including the number of electoral college votes each candidate will receive, who will win the popular vote, the state electoral college winner, the state margin, seat margin, US Senate winner and many more.
For example, Mr Trump is paying $4.50 to win the popular vote compared to Mr Biden’s $1.18 (the candidate to get the most votes across America).
In 2016, Ms Clinton won the popular vote but still lost the election.
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ODDS BEFORE 2016 ELECTION
When Donald Trump took on Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, it wasn’t just the pollsters that got the outcome disastrously wrong – the betting sites also incorrectly predicted a Clinton victory.
In fact, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power failed so spectacularly it ended up with a £4 million ($A7,399,793) bill after prematurely paying out £800,000 $A1,479,958) to those who had backed Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump’s shock win.
According to OddsShark, Mr Trump’s odds to win the 2016 election were close to 5-to-1 on election day eve and over at TAB, Mr Trump was $2.35 before markets closed ahead of the 2016 election.
HOW TO BET
Betting on political elections is very much illegal in all 50 states in the US.
However, the same rules don’t apply in other countries, which means betting agencies based in Australia, the UK and other nations are open for business, with most companies allowing punters to place a bet online.
According to Fortune, gambling insiders are expecting the previous record set in 2016 to be broken again this year, with some bookies expecting the election to be even bigger than the Super Bowl where betting in concerned.
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