Will Ukraine's Neptune long-range missile make a difference?

Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the new Neptune rocket had successfully passed each of its tests and proven itself successful battle.

"It is simply a caller Ukrainian rocket, precise precise. It has a scope of 1,000 kilometers [620 miles]. Many acknowledgment to our Ukrainian developers, manufacturers and our military," helium wrote connected Telegram, without giving further accusation arsenic to imaginable targets.    

Open root quality analysts and media outlets person reported that Ukraine utilized the caller rocket to deed a Russian lipid refinery successful the Black Sea larboard of Tuapse this past weekend. Regional Russian officials confirmed a occurrence astatine a installation successful the municipality — immoderate 550 kilometers from the beforehand line. Experts told DW that the caller rocket is apt a modification of Ukraine's Neptune R-360 anti-ship missile.

The R-360 cruise rocket was developed by Luch Design Bureau successful Kyiv, and has been employed by Ukrainian forces since 2020. The R-360, on with the RK-360MC-System, is utilized to support Ukraine's coastline by recognizing and destroying force ships. The R-360 has an explosive payload of up to 150 kilograms (331 pounds) and has a scope of up to 300 kilometers.

Its archetypal usage successful conflict came successful April 2022, erstwhile it was deployed against the Russian frigate Admiral Essen. That proceedings was followed days later by what would go 1 of the astir important events successful the war, erstwhile 2 specified missiles struck and sank the €750 cardinal Russian cruiser Moskva, the flagship of Russia's Black Sea fleet.

But that capableness wasn't capable to fulfill engineers successful Ukraine. They presented a further modification of the R-360 successful 2023, giving it the capableness to strike some onshore and sea-based targets.

As an anonymous typical from Ukraine's Defense Ministry told the US portal The War Zone, the caller mentation has an improved scope of up to 400 kilometers arsenic good arsenic being capable to transportation an explosive payload of up to 350 kilograms — 200 kilos much than the anti-ship version. The rocket has been utilized connected galore occasions, among others, erstwhile targeting Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems astatine Saky aerial basal successful occupied Crimea successful September 2023.

Now, according to subject experts, it appears Ukrainian engineers person developed an updated mentation of the Neptune.

Will Ukraine beryllium capable to mass nutrient caller missile?

Mykola Sunhurovskyi from the Razumkov Center, a Kyiv-based nationalist argumentation NGO, told DW that the main contented volition beryllium whether Ukraine tin wide nutrient the caller weapon. Sunhurovskyi said the caller projectile lone makes consciousness if it tin beryllium utilized successful ample numbers. 

"I anticipation that with a operation of technological, manufacturing and fiscal resources, Ukraine and its Western partners tin truly crank up production. But the question is, wherever to nutrient them […] due to the fact that the full of Ukraine's territory is nether attack," helium said.

Serhiy Zgurets from the Ukrainian defence consulting steadfast Defense Express agreed that serial accumulation is key. He believes Ukraine should beryllium capable to support up with Russia and nutrient 40 to 50 missiles each month.

"We person to execute that benignant of pace," helium said, adding that dissimilar different types of missiles, the squad down this caller Neptune is highly experienced. "For instance, radical person been talking astir the [Ukrainian] Sapsan ballistic rocket for 15 to 20 years present and it inactive hasn't been completed." Whereas, helium added, the Neptune has already repeatedly proven its worthy successful battle.

Can Kyiv replace Western weapons?

Until the accomplishment of the Neptune, the American ATACMS arsenic good arsenic UK-supplied Storm Shadow rockets were the lone longer-range missiles that Kyiv had astatine its disposal. Publicly accessible information suggests those rockets had maximum ranges of up to 300 kilometers.

Media reports besides suggest that Ukraine burned done its past ATACMS missiles successful January. So far, it's unclear whether further shipments person been sent by the US. Kyiv is besides moving debased connected Storm Shadow rockets.

That's wherefore experts are blessed to spot that Kyiv present has a long-range rocket of its own. Nevertheless, they uncertainty the caller rocket volition let Ukraine to wholly regenerate its Western arsenal.

"Considering what the Ukrainian equipped forces needs successful presumption of missiles, this isn't astir replacing Western rockets. It's astir supplementing them," said Sunhurovskyi.

Zgurets besides pointed to Ukraine's ongoing request for a missiles that it has yet to receive, particularly German Taurus cruise missiles. "A Taurus flies up to 600 kilometers with a payload of 450 kilograms. Its scope is little than the Neptune, but the Taurus has a unsocial penetrating warhead that is made to destruct bunkers heavy underground. A Taurus is technologically refined and is the astir precocious rocket determination is," helium said.  

What tin Kyiv people with its caller missiles?

Sunhurovskyi said Russia has reacted to Ukraine's expanding scope by withdrawing imaginable targets — specified arsenic combatant jets and definite accumulation facilities — further distant from the beforehand lines. "But you can't determination an lipid refinery," helium added. Thanks to the Neptune's range, a full big of Russian targets are present wrong reach.

Until now, Ukraine could lone deed targets astatine a region of greater than 300 kilometers with drones. The Ukraine-developed combatant drone Lyuty, for instance, has a scope of 1,000 kilometers. And its Ninja drones established a long-distance grounds erstwhile they were utilized to onslaught a refinery belonging to the chemic institution Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat — 1,500 kilometers (more than 900 miles) away. The quality was reported by Ukrainian media successful May 2024, citing anonymous quality services sources.

"Drones volition inactive beryllium utilized but they can't transportation overmuch of an explosive complaint — up to 50 kilos. You cannot penetrate a fortified people with them, not adjacent if you deed it with respective drones astatine once," said Oleksiy Hetman, a reserve large of the National Guard of Ukraine and a seasoned of the Russian-Ukrainian war, successful a caller vigor interview. He estimated that the Neptune tin transportation a 300-kilogram warhead, and would truthful beryllium capable to destruct fortified buildings.

Zgurets said determination galore Russian targets beyond a region of 300 kilometers that could beryllium destroyed with the usage of the caller missile, from logistics centers to mostly manufacturing facilities, truly turning the existent struggle into a warfare of attrition.

"That is precisely what Russia is trying to bash to Ukraine," helium said, emphasizing that Ukraine's caller missile could let it to destruct Russian refineries, bid posts and weapons depots without Kyiv being babelike connected assistance from the US oregon anyone else.

This nonfiction was primitively written successful Ukrainian.